At a Glance: The Q·Score
Costco scores 7.6 ("Bullish") against Walmart's 6.7 ("Neutral") — a gap of 0.9 points. In a scoring system that runs from 1 to 10, a gap of that size is meaningful but not decisive; it reflects a consistent edge across several dimensions rather than a single blowout category. Both companies are recognisable, financially mature businesses, which makes the spread worth unpacking dimension by dimension.
Quality — Profitability and Capital Efficiency
Costco leads on Quality.
The two companies post identical net profit margins — both at 3% — which is characteristic of high-volume, low-markup retail. The differentiation comes from capital efficiency. Return on equity (ROE — how much profit a company generates for every dollar of shareholder equity) stands at 29.2% for Costco versus 22.3% for Walmart. That 6.9-percentage-point gap signals that Costco is extracting meaningfully more value from its equity base. In a sector where margins are structurally thin, ROE becomes a critical signal of operational discipline, and Costco's figure is notably strong for Consumer Defensive. The data gives the edge to Costco on this dimension.
Health — Balance Sheet and Execution
The data gives the edge to Costco on Health, though both companies show a notable strength.
Both Costco and Walmart post an EPS beat rate (the proportion of recent quarters in which reported earnings per share exceeded analyst expectations) of 100% — a perfect record for each. That consistency is rare and speaks to the forecasting reliability and operational steadiness of both businesses. Without additional balance sheet granularity such as debt-to-equity ratios or current ratios in the supplied data, the Health dimension leans on that execution record as its primary signal. A flawless beat rate across all measured quarters is a meaningful indicator of management's ability to deliver on expectations, and here the two companies are effectively tied — though Costco's higher overall Q·Score reflects its stronger performance across the composite.
Growth — Revenue, Earnings, and Surprise
Costco leads on Growth — and it isn't close.
Costco's revenue growth of 21.5% against Walmart's 5.9% is a striking divergence for two companies operating in the same sector. Revenue growth measures how quickly a company's top-line sales are expanding year over year, and 21.5% is an exceptional figure for a mature, large-cap retailer. The earnings growth gap is even more dramatic: Costco's 45.5% earnings growth sits alongside Walmart's -9.1%, meaning Walmart's earnings have actually contracted over the measured period. For context, Consumer Defensive companies are generally expected to deliver steady but modest growth — Costco's numbers are running well above that norm, while Walmart's earnings decline is a notable soft spot in an otherwise resilient business. Both companies maintain a 100% EPS beat rate, so the surprise quality is equal — but the underlying growth trajectory gives this dimension decisively to Costco.
Valuation — Price Relative to Fundamentals
Walmart leads on Valuation.
Forward P/E — the stock's current price divided by projected earnings per share over the next twelve months — is 32.8x for Walmart and 39.9x for Costco. In Consumer Defensive retail, where stable cash flows and predictable demand typically justify P/E multiples in the mid-to-high twenties, both stocks trade at a premium. However, Walmart's lower forward P/E means investors are paying less per dollar of projected earnings, which gives it the relative valuation edge on this dimension. On analyst consensus price targets, Walmart's implied upside from its current price of $105.83 is 20.4%, compared to Costco's 18.8% from its current price of $902.60 — a modest difference, but again pointing in Walmart's favour. Both stocks sit at prices that imply meaningful upside to consensus targets, though those targets reflect analyst expectations rather than guaranteed outcomes. Walmart's 52-week range position and lower forward multiple combine to give it the edge here.
Sentiment — Analyst Consensus
Walmart leads on Sentiment — by a wide margin.
This is the dimension that most sharply contradicts the fundamental picture. 86% of the 40 analysts covering Walmart carry a positive rating on the stock. For Costco, that figure is 62% of 35 covering analysts — still a majority, but a considerably smaller one. Walmart also has broader coverage, with five more analysts following the stock. The divergence is notable: Costco's fundamental data — stronger ROE, dramatically higher revenue and earnings growth — outperforms Walmart's across most dimensions, yet analyst sentiment tilts firmly toward Walmart. This could reflect a range of factors: Walmart's scale and defensive characteristics, expectations around Costco's valuation premium, or differing views on the sustainability of Costco's growth trajectory. Whatever the cause, the sentiment data gives this dimension clearly to Walmart, and it represents one of the more interesting tensions in this comparison.
What the Data Shows
Costco holds the higher Q·Score at 7.6 ("Bullish") versus Walmart's 6.7 ("Neutral"), a 0.9-point gap driven primarily by Costco's commanding advantage in Growth — where a 45.5% earnings growth rate and 21.5% revenue expansion stand in sharp contrast to Walmart's -9.1% earnings contraction — and a meaningful edge in Quality through its higher return on equity. Walmart, for its part, leads on Valuation (lower forward P/E, marginally higher implied upside) and Sentiment (86% positive analyst rating ratio versus 62%), creating a split picture where the company with stronger recent fundamentals carries less analyst enthusiasm than its slower-growing peer. The Health dimension is effectively a draw, with both companies posting a perfect EPS beat rate.
Explore the Full Comparison
The live, interactive breakdown — updated in real time — is available at quantify.biz/compare/cost-vs-wmt.